BY: Odufuwa Abayomi
As the deadline for all political parties to conclude primaries elections and submit their flag bearers ends on 9th of June,2022, it is evident that almost all the eighteen (18) political parties in Nigeria have concluded their primaries and submitted flag bearers for the 2023 general election.
Despite reducing the number of political parties from 92 in the previous election to 18, only a few of them still make headlines. Some of these are: All progressive Congress (APC) With Bola Ahmed Tinubu as flag bearer, People Democratic Party (PDP) with Atiku Abubakar as Flag bearer, Labour Party (LP) with Peter Obi as flag bearer and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as flag bearer and others.
For a brief of these flag bearers, Ahmed Bola Tinubu was the former Governor of Lagos state between 1999- 2007 under AD later to ACN. Atiku Abubakar was former Vice President to Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007. Atiku Abubakar contested under ACN in 2007, 2011 and 2014. He also contested Presidential Primaries with President Muhammadu Buhari under APC again in 2019 and he contested under PDP with the same President Muhammadu Buhari in APC,
In another development, Peter Obi was the former Governor of Anambra state who later became the running mate to Atiku Abubakar in 2019 under PDP. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso on his part, was former governor of Kano state from 1999-2003 and 2011-2014. He also contested APC Presidential Primaries alongside Atiku Abubakar and was defeated by President Muhammadu Buhari to clinch the APC ticket in 2014. So, there is no Greenhorn among them.
HOW CAN APC RETAIN POWER IN 2023 IN THE FACE OF THESE POLITICAL GLADIATORS?
With the aforementioned personalities and their Pedigrees, their chances depend on considerable factors or interest of play.
1. The choice of a viable Christian Vice President from the North. Even though Muslim, Muslim Ticket can go, considering the fact that those with large vote turnout in the North West (Kano, Katsina Jigawa, Kaduna, Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi) are predominantly Muslims. It is a political calculation for APC to win and as such, the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as amended did not forbid it. Although, this calculation, may prove to be difficult.
2. How the APC Presidential flag bearer, Bola Tinubu is able to rally and persuade the runners up to support him which is already going on.
3. APC is currently in control of 22 states and PDP 12 states their strength to canvass support for the party matters. Of the 19 Northern states, only Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Sokoto and Taraba are not APC. This means APC is stronger in the North. Down to the South, APC has Lagos, Osun, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Imo, Cross River and Ebonyi. While the PDP states include, Edo, Delta, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Abia and Bayelsa. Only Anambra state has APGA. This analysis may further give APC the strength in the South. And with Governors in charge of their states, the possibility of overrunning PDP in their 22 states is obvious.
4. The political structure of APC is stronger than PDP. This was exemplify in the last APC convention where Northern Governors insisted that the position of President be zoned to the South and they backed it up by mobilizing their delegates to vote in line with their resolutions. This was a different experience in the case of PDP where the Governors led by Nyason Wike wanted one of them to pick the ticket which was later picked by Atiku Abubakar.
5. Personality question. Both Atiku Abubakar and Ahmed Tinubu are members of old PDM led by late Shehu Musa Yar’adua. And they are both Muslims and both have financial muscle. Despite Atiku Abubakar is from North East, Tinubu has more political structure in the North. This was crystal cleared and seen during the last APC special convention and his contribution to humanity across all creed is acme.This structure is stretched from Federal, State, Local Government, Wards and Units across the country.
On the contrary, Ahmed Tinubu of APC may be affected if ethnic card is played. When an Hausa man will prefer Atiku Abubakar as his Fulani brother and see Ahmed Tinubu as an alien. Only this can change the narratives. Otherwise, APC has chances of retaining power in 2023.
Other contestants which include Peter Obi of Labour Party is only on ground in the South East Even his own state, Anambra is ruled by APGA. So, he may fade earlier considering the fact that Atiku Abubakar is stronger in the South East- the PDP stronghold.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso on his part brought a party that is extremely new, he may make impact in Kano state considering the fact that Kano is his base and he has large followers. However, PDP or APC may take the state. Musa Kwankwaso and Peter Obi don’t have the financial muscles to fight Atiku Abubakar and Ahmed Tinubu.
To have 2023 election, sympathy vote may also play a role. This is where people will vote for their own sons and daughters across the nation. If this appears to be a factor, then, a Northerner can take the lead by virtue of their population strength.
Conclusively, another hard nut for APC is the present economic situation and security challenges in the country. Being the ruling party, it will count against them but the ability to defend their campaign using issue base, will put them above other parties. The APC should be ready to tell the electorates what they achieved in their 8 years of governance and what they have on board when voted in 2023.
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