The declaration of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the winner of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential ticket for the 2023 general election seems to be a response to President Muhammad Buhari’s appeals to the party’s delegates to ensure that the party flag bearer must be formidable and command the ability to unify the country and capacity to address our critical challenges.
However, the emergence of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Muslim from the South West has turned out to be very challenging and tense, in view of the selection of his vice presidential candidate. The victory was a reversal of the political status in the country, compared to 1993 when MKO Abiola, a Muslim from same region emerged as SDP presidential candidate.
The development is due to the religious angle of a Muslim-Muslim ticket that seems inevitable for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, considering the roles played by notable members of the party from the North and knowing that the northern region remains the stronghold of the party.
As part of the efforts to understand the issue from stakeholders’ perspective in respect to the presidential election in 2023, this review form a preliminary evaluation of the political situation aimed at providing exploratory opinion to support the flag bearer, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision-making process towards the selection of vice presidential candidate that will guarantee winning the presidential election in 2023.
Race for APC 2023 presidential election primary
While the outcome of the keenly contested 2023 All Progressive Congress (APC) primary election remains a surprise to many political observers, some analysts attributed the victory to credible performance of Bola Ahmed Tinubu during his eight years in office as Lagos State Governor, which earned him record of corporate leadership, financial expertise and a major actor in Nigeria’s democratic governance.
Regardless of the diverse views over the choice of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the reality of religious diversity in our society has re-open the contest for balance of power in the party ticket vis-Ã -vis assessment of religion of presidential candidate and vice by stakeholders.
The presidential candidate in his address to the public, claimed that: “Though our tribe and tongue may differ, we must build a united country, premised on equity, fairness and justice. True reform and progress lie not in copying others but in identifying our own opportunities.” Also, he acknowledged that, “to lead Nigerians is a sacred trust, which I do not take lightly or seek selfishly. By giving me the party’s mandate, I hereby make my solemn vow to make Nigeria the best home for its citizens.”
Gale of opposition to Muslim-Muslim ticket
Expectedly, Christian Association of Nigeria’s vehement opposition to such a ticket favour opposing views among the segment of the party and non-party members of the public, especially from the Southern part of the country. For those opposing the Muslim-Muslim ticket, it is perceived that the ticket will be a direct challenge to the Christian community and may have negative impact on the chance of the party to win 2023 presidential election.
There is a school of thought that doesn’t see Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s wife being a Christian and a possible first lady as solution to the issue because they thought the attention given to the South-North regional diversity should be apply to Muslim-Christian diversity as well.
All over the world, politics is about interest, which can be personal, group, communal, ethnic, racial, religious etc. However, there are strong views who believed that strong and admirable values and visions for nation building should override these sentiments which should be our selling proposition.
With this development, political analysts believe that the chances of the presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and the ruling party, All Progressive Congress (APC) to retain the position in the 2023 may be threatened based on the selection of the vice presidential candidate for the 2023 election.
Disposition to Muslim-Muslim ticket
For those favourable to the Muslim-Muslim ticket, the diverse views include the following:
North as APC’s Stronghold: They believed that it would be politically expedient for the party to take advantage of huge potential voters in the northern region dominated by Muslim population and being the stronghold of the party in the last two presidential elections has highlighted in the table below.
APC
PDP
South South
418,590
8%
4,715,111
92%
South East
133,253
7%
559,185
93%
South West
2,433,193
57%
1,821 416
43%
North West
11,145,099
85%
1,289, 709
15%
North East
2,848 678
78%
796,318
22%
North Central
2,411,013
58%
1,715,454
42%
It is the few of analysts that if 2023 presidential election is projected based on the strength of outcome in the 2019 election to evaluate the chances of APC winning the 2023 election which seem to be favourable.
Likely Understanding from Southern Stakeholder: There is strong position about likelihood of understanding from stakeholders from the South being the region that produced the All Progressive Congress’ candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Those with this view believed that there are many notable stakeholders among the Christians in the South who will stand and defend the choice if Asiwaju Bola Tinubu insists on a Muslim/ Muslim ticket. The personality of the running mate will have an influence on likelihood of acceptance, especially if not perceived as an extremist who will undermine the interests of the Christian community.
Religious Status of Tinubu’s Family: Considering the public perception of Tinubu, especially in the North as a liberal Muslim with a Christian wife, some opinion formers hold the stance that a Muslim running mate from the North will guarantee the confidence of the northern populace as to commitment to their religious value and interest. This concern is considered important in view of opposition candidate’s religion who is a northerner.
Trend in World of Democratic Governance: It is a well-known fact that in contemporary world of democratic governance, the religion and faith as a factor in determining the choice of people for political office is being discourage or downplay. Those with this position believe that Nigerian stakeholders and public should move along that line instead, focus on good governance and the right of all.
Zoning as Political Solution: The fear about the Muslim-Muslim ticket can be douse through political solution where strategic government positions are zoned to individual from others not represented at the presidential or vice presidential level. Such position may include the Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives andSecretary to the Federal Government (SGF) and so on.
Reality from Status Quo: Despite the representation of religious interest since 1999 especially, the choice of a pastor and a Law professor who is an incumbent vice president, the country remains in same suspicion on issues of representation and protection from insecurity which cannot be separated from religion factor. Imagine what the challenges could have been if we have a Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian president and vice president. In view of this reality, the party may need to down play the fear through public advocacy for more understanding.
Finally, though the 2023 presidential election is about eight months away, knowing that in politics perception is reality; and the APC leaders also knowing that in politics perception is reality; the APC leaders especially the candidates should be very sensitive enough to ensure a Christian running mate for Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, one who is deeply evaluated from all concerns and likely solution that will not geopardise the mission to retain power in 2023. The party needs to make all necessary sacrifice, appeals or negotiations that will help to reach amicable solution in light of winning the 2023 presidential election.
The good starting point is to understand the mindset of stakeholders and electorates to guide the decision in respect of vice presidential candidate because the struggle for 2023 presidential election will certainly remain the deciding factor for APC, which is how internal democracy is effectively managed to avoid division over the choice of vice presidential candidate for the party.
Just like in other political environment, it is important to recognise religious factor in the Nigerian context, with respect to our political history and current challenges to ensure a wider consultation both within and outside the party if the Muslim-Muslim ticket must be considered for stakeholders’ buy-in. The party and the candidate need to recognise people’s emotional attachment, perception, and reality to all the religion interest in view of the prevailing circumstances.
However, if the running mate must be a Muslim, he must be a personality that will be seen to be accommodating and sensitive to the Christian community over the years and who they can trust. This can be achieved through commitment to the national interest.
Senator Adesoji Akanbi is the Deputy National Chairman, SWAGA’23
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