By Fola Ojo
I seek your permission to echo the frequent musing of my very good friend who lives in Sacramento, California. At least three times a week, and often into the wee hours of the night, my friend and I passionately discuss Nigeria and her many challenges. With our non-partisan garb strapped on, we deliberate on the ugliness of Nigerian politics, the roughness of our road networks, decadence in our public education that’s not better than public toilet, pervasive acerbic ethnic schism and hatred, and of course, corruption escapades of public officials looming large in powerful positions of trust; and enmeshed in malfeasances regarding our patrimonies. My friend and I analyse, psychoanalyse, debate, and argue about why the Nigerian nation is fast decaying in many areas before our eyes. In the aftermath of our moots, my friend resigns to fate, he sighs and dejectedly submits thus: “Fola, ise wa l’owo Tinubu oo.”
Interpreted such- Tinubu has a lot of work on his hands. I think deeply about this statement. And I agree with my friend that President-elect Bola Tinubu will have his work cut out for him. By May 29, the former Lagos State governor will be sworn in as Nigeria’s 16th president. I feel sorry for Tinubu and his team. The road ahead of Nigeria under his watch will be very rough. The following are my troubling concerns.
How does Tinubu get Nigeria out of the valley of the shadow of debt she is in? How does he get Nigeria to pay back a whooping N42tn debt? When the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd) became President 2015, this is the debt picture he had to deal with. In 2010, Nigeria’s Domestic Debt was N3.4tn. By May 29, 2015, it had ballooned to N8.51tn. Before then, Nigeria borrowed N5.04trillion from the domestic debt market and grew by 157.48 per cent between 2010 and 2015. Within that period, the external debts of both the federal and state governments rose from $4,306,180,000 to $9,464,110,000. From May 29, 2015, Buhari spent 25 per cent of Nigeria’s annual earnings on servicing the huge debt and another 25 per cent on oil subsidy. As of today, Nigeria’s public debt stands at N46.25tn (($103.1b). External loans have increased from $25.7bn at the end of 2018 to $46bn. The revised expenditure for 2023 was estimated at an all-time high of N21.8tn while revenue projection is at N10.5tn.
Economists forecast that the budget deficit will come in above the government’s deficit target of N11.3tn. On top of all these messy figures, we have an inflation rate of 20 per cent. Do you still wonder why I feel sorry for Tinubu? How does he get Nigeria out of this mess?
Nigeria’s overall economic story is sorry. In 2017, the International Monetary Fund said that Nigeria was considered to be on track to becoming one of the 20 largest economies in the world by 2020. But in 2021, its mission chief, Amine Mati, said that the prediction failed flat! The economy underperformed by growing too slowly to reduce poverty or joblessness. Miseries have deepened and more pain evident on main street. In spite of our human assets and brainiacs in all fields making waves around the world and helping governments of other countries; it continues to be so difficult to launch Nigeria on a prosperous path that leaves no single Nigerian behind. According to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, the nation’s unemployment rate rose to 33.3 per cent, compared to 27.1 per cent in Q2 2020. This implied a staggering 23.18 million persons of the country’s labour force being out of job. It further indicated an increase in the country’s unemployment portfolio, mostly among young and able youths. The International Labour Organisation recently reported that the global unemployment level is expected to rise in 2023 by around three million, to 208 million, corresponding to a global unemployment rate of 5.8 per cent. What this means is that there will be an uptick in youth restlessness and their involvements in serious crimes if they are unable to feed themselves and take care of their families. Do you still wonder why I feel sorry for Tinubu when he’s sworn in as President?
Tinubu has promised to crush the corrupt and corruption. Buhari, a retired army general, and a man noted for his fierce anti-corruption stance, promised much more but couldn’t deliver. I’m still wondering how Tinubu will crush corruption when big-time corrupt elements are publicly warming up to hold sway in the coming administration. Even in the animal kingdom, there is accountability. In the kingdom of the corrupt in Nigeria, wickedness is the guiding constitution; and depravity is the by-law. Everybody does as he pleases. Leaders trusted with power betray the trust as they steal and pillage at will, cleaning up their tracks, and no meted consequences.
I feel sorry for Tinubu because when he becomes President, he will not only have to deal with thieving politicians, but also with deftly and dexterously corrupt civil servants behind the desk. These fellas are human academies that breed corrupt politicians. They have guiding manuals in their heads from where they spew out tutorials on how to plunder without leaving tracks behind. They are writers of money-milking memos, disbursers of stolen loot, and connoisseurs in how to circumvent existing rules and laws. Without civil servants, politicians can’t do much evil or much good. They stay in positions for decades without the say-so of the people while politicians are in power for just a few years. Those who run the government show in Nigeria are in the civil service, politicians are voluntary accomplices. How does Tinubu end corruption in Nigeria without ending these civil servants? Do you still wonder why I feel sorry for Tinubu?
In the 1980s, the US$ sold for a mere 0.78k, today, one US$ hovers around N750. Once upon a time, Nigeria was a net exporter of refined petroleum products. As of today, imports currently account for over 80 per cent of Nigeria’s refined product supply, creating a huge potential for local refining. What happened to that Nigeria? Once upon a time, Peugeot cars were assembled in Kaduna, Volkswagen cars in Lagos, Leyland in Ibadan, and ANAMCO in Enugu. All of these giant structures together flooded the market with locally assembled cars, buses, and trucks. Nigeria Airways was about the biggest in Africa at the time as Nigerians cruised around the world in the big bird. Greed and gluttony grounded the airline, and we are not sure if it will ever fly. Nigeria remains the largest economy, but economic inequality stands its ground all across the spectrum. Today, great stories about our past exploits are only read in history books. But what happened to that Nigeria? Do you still wonder why I feel sorry for Tinubu when he becomes president? How does he change this ugly narrative to a beautiful story? The problem with Nigeria’s many problems is that we all know our problems, we have the means to solve them, but the will to tackle them head-on and resolve once and for all is lacking. Will Tinubu be different from his predecessors? I pray and hope.
Twitter: @Folaojotweet
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